Reviewing your results

Your first demo month is done. You remember one painful −2R loss and you are already shopping for a new indicator. Before you change anything, let the journal tell you what happened.

Group your trades, then read the groups

Monthly review

Month

Trades

Win rate

Total R

Expectancy (R/trade)

Plan followed

Followed the plan?

Pair

Feeling before

Weekday

Bars show total R for each group; the number in brackets is how many trades.

Open the journal

An illustrative demo month, totalled four ways. The longest red bar is the leak: a group of trades, not a single trade.

The review shows an illustrative month of 18 demo trades (tap Example month if it opens on your own journal). One trade at a time, a month is noise. Grouped, patterns show up. Sort every entry in your trading journal four ways:

Followed the plan? Yes or no, against your trading plan.
Pair. Does one market cost you more?
Feeling before. The mood you logged before clicking.
Weekday. Some traders fade late in the week.

Each bar totals a group in R, the amount you risk per trade (see reward-to-risk). Bars right of the line made money.

Look for the leak, not the worst trade

You remember the worst trade: a −2R GBP/USD loss taken feeling revengeful. One trade is a story; a group is a pattern you can fix.

The leak is the group that costs the most in total. Here it is broken-plan trades: 6 trades, −5.5R. The feeling chart agrees. The three Frustrated and two Revengeful trades lost 6.5R between them, and all five broke the plan.

In this example the leak is behavioural: a rule broken, a trade taken angry after a loss, a daily loss limit ignored. Check the other charts against the leak before you blame a pair or a day. GBP/USD is −3.5R, but four of its nine trades broke the plan; its five rule-following trades made +1.5R. Friday is −3R, and all four Friday trades broke the plan.

What a small sample can and cannot show

Eighteen trades, or even 30, cannot tell you whether your method has an edge. The strategy testing lesson shows why: over 20 or 30 trades a sound method and a lucky one look the same, and the plausible range of expectancy still includes zero.

Rule-breaking is different. You need no statistics to know you broke your plan six times: each break is a fact in your journal, and under your control. So in month one, judge your discipline hard and your method lightly.

One rule change for next month

End the review with one change, written as a trigger and an action: “when this happens, I do that”. One change, not five, so next month’s review shows whether it worked. Add it to your trading plan and pre-trade checklist, and score it by broken-plan trades, not profit.

Example: reviewing a September demo month

Demo balance $3,000, risk 1%, so 1R = $30.

Headline: 18 trades, 7 winners: win rate 7 ÷ 18 = 39%. Total +1R, or +$30. Expectancy +1R ÷ 18 ≈ +0.06R per trade.
Split by plan: followed, 12 trades, +6.5R. Broken, 6 trades, −5.5R. Check: +6.5R − 5.5R = +1R. The plan was followed on 12 ÷ 18 = 67% of trades.
The leak: broken-plan trades, −5.5R × $30 = −$165. Five of the six were taken Frustrated or Revengeful (−6.5R). The sixth, an Eager trade, won +1R. Check: −6.5R + 1R = −5.5R.
Without the broken trades: +6.5R over 12 trades = +0.54R per trade, or +$195 in total.
What that shows: the drag on the month came from trades outside the rules, not the method.
What it does not show: that the method works. Twelve trades is far too few. Turn two of the five +2R winners into 1R losses and the same 12 trades total just +0.5R: 6.5 − 2 − 2 − 1 − 1 = 0.5.
The one rule: “After two losses in a day, or when I feel frustrated, I stop for the day.” The feeling half covers all five Frustrated or Revengeful trades (revenge is frustration with a target). The two-loss half is a backstop for days you misread your mood.
Next month’s check: broken-plan trades, down from 6.

Try it

Trade journal

Trades logged0

Plan followed—

Average result—

Result when plan broken—

Saved in this browser only. Over fifty trades, the last column shows what breaking the plan costs you.

Log every trade from your 30-trade challenge here the same day; the trading journal lesson explains each field. With five or more entries, scroll up and tap My journal in the review. At month end, read the leak and write your one rule.

Notice how the last figure, “Result when plan broken”, is the one the review turns into a leak: if it sits well below your average result, your next rule is about behaviour, not the method.

Quick check

Question 1 of 4
In the example month, what is the leak?
Question 2 of 4
The 12 rule-following trades made +6.5R, or +0.54R per trade. What does that tell you?
Question 3 of 4
Which is the best rule change after this review?
Question 4 of 4
With 1R = $30, what did the broken-plan trades cost in the example month?

Go deeper: How to keep a trading journal (template included) · Revenge trading: how to recognise it and break the cycle · Trading expectancy: the number that says if a strategy works