Rate decisions and press conferences

At 19:00 UK time the Fed holds rates, exactly as expected, and EUR/USD barely moves. At 19:30 the Fed chair starts answering questions, and over the next half-hour the pair falls 60 pips.

Three events in one

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Illustrative 5-minute EUR/USD chart on a Fed day, 18:40 to 20:05 UK time. Step through the decision, the quiet half-hour and the press conference.

A central bank meeting releases three things, and each can surprise:

• The decision. The rate itself. It is signalled weeks ahead and priced through interest-rate futures, so the number is usually expected.
• The statement. The written explanation, compared word by word with the last one. At four meetings a year (March, June, September, December) the Fed also publishes members’ projections for rates. The Bank of England publishes its vote split with the decision: a hold voted 5–4 reads very differently from 9–0.
• The press conference. Thirty minutes after the decision for the Fed and the European Central Bank. Answers to questions are unscripted, and a single phrase can change what the market expects.

Why the second move happens

Rate hikeRate cut

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The chain runs on expected rates. When the press conference changes the expected path, the chain starts again: step through it, then switch to a cut.

A currency moves on the expected path of rates over the coming months, not only on today’s rate. You saw this in Central banks and interest rates. If the decision is in line but the press conference sounds more hawkish or dovish than expected, the path shifts and the currency reprices. That repricing, starting some time after the headline, is the second move. It is often larger than the first because it carries the information the market did not have.

When it happens where you are

Event	Home time	UK time	Iran, UK winter	Iran, UK summer
Fed decision	14:00 New York	19:00	22:30	21:30
Fed press conference	14:30 New York	19:30	23:00	22:00
ECB decision	14:15 Frankfurt	13:15	16:45	15:45
ECB press conference	14:45 Frankfurt	13:45	17:15	16:15
Bank of England decision	12:00 London	12:00	15:30	14:30

UK winter runs from the last Sunday of October to the last Sunday of March. Iran no longer changes its clocks (it stopped after 2022), so Iran stays at UTC+3:30 all year and its gap to London switches between 3½ and 2½ hours. The US changes its clocks on different dates from the UK, so a Fed meeting in mid-to-late March or in the last days of October comes at 18:00 UK (21:30 Iran). Check each meeting date on your calendar.

Try it

What would you do?

It is 19:10 UK on Fed day. Rates were held as expected and EUR/USD is back at 1.0850 after a 16-pip spike. You see a buy setup with a 20-pip stop. The press conference starts at 19:30.

Buy at full size now: the decision is out and nothing happenedBuy, but with a 5-pip stop so the loss stays smallWait until the press conference is over and the spread is normal, then look at the chart again

Compare where each choice leaves your money when the press conference starts at 19:30.

Quick check

Quick check

1. Question 1 of 4

   The Fed holds rates as expected and the statement barely changes. Why can EUR/USD still move 60 pips half an hour later?

   AThe press conference changed what the market expects for future ratesBBrokers reopen their spreads at 19:30CThe decision is re-announced at the press conference

Go deeper: Central banks and forex: Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ · Hawkish vs dovish: how to read central bank language