Lesson 4 of 9 · 8 min
Jobs data and NFP
The first Friday of every month, one report sets the tone for the dollar. Learn what it contains and how to survive it.
By the end you'll be able to
- Name the three numbers inside the US jobs report and what each signals
- Describe what price typically does in the minutes around a major release
- Decide how to handle open positions and new trades around the release
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At 13:30 London time on the first Friday of the month, spreads widen, charts go vertical, and a lot of stop losses get hit in both directions. This is non-farm payrolls.
What is in the report
Non-farm payrolls is the monthly US employment report. Three numbers matter:
- Jobs added (the headline, in thousands). More than expected: strong economy, less need for rate cuts, dollar up.
- Unemployment rate. Lower is stronger for the dollar.
- Average hourly earnings. Rising wages feed inflation, which feeds rate expectations. In some months this is the number that moves the market most.
The three can disagree. A strong headline with weak wages is a mixed report, and the first move often reverses as traders digest all three.
What the chart does
A typical release-day sequence on a 5-minute chart.
Try it
| Time | Cur. | Impact | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | USD | ●●● | Non-farm payrolls (jobs added) | 185k | 170k | — |
Slide the actual figure. The market reacts to the gap between actual and forecast, not to the number itself. Reactions are illustrative.
Notice how a big beat produces a sharp reaction in the model, but on the real chart above the first candle is followed by a retrace. The simulator shows direction; the sketch shows the path.
Handling the release
- Close or reduce positions before high-impact releases, or make sure the stop is wide enough that normal release noise cannot hit it.
- Do not enter in the first few minutes. Spreads are wide, fills are poor and the first move often reverses.
- Wait for the settle. A move that holds twenty or thirty minutes after the release is far more reliable than the first spike.
Quick check
Question 1 of 3
Jobs come in far above forecast. The usual immediate effect on the dollar is:
Question 2 of 3
Why is the first candle after a release unreliable?
Question 3 of 3
The safest way to hold a position through NFP is:
Go deeper: Non-farm payrolls: what it is and how it moves forex